Batten down the hatches, there’s a rough ride ahead.

Gangster in chief Al Capone eventually went to jail for tax evasion not murder. They got him in the end. The analogy is far from precise but I have a feeling that “they” (whoever “they” is ) might get Keir Starmer for the Mandelson error not for failed governance.

Now let be clear Starmer’s mistakes are individually not particularly venal, but collectively the perception is that they add up to a Prime Minister not on top of his job. And these perceptions become reality because, rightly or wrongly, people perceive them to be true.

The Mandelson scandal (and scandal it is) revealed a culpable lack of judgment on Starmer’s part. When I heard of the appointment I immediately could see a very deep elephant trap opening up, and unavoidable. Mandy has previous (ask Tony Blair) and this and his linkage to Jeffrey Epstein, greatest villain of our times, should instantly have precluded his appointment.

That Mandelson qua ability could do the job is probably true, but not the point. We’re back to perceptions again. When Emily Maitlis did her forensic demolition of Prince Andrew the dodgy links to Epstein were enough to destroy him. Andrew was too thick to see this. Mandelson is far from thick which is why he should have turned Starmer’s job offer down. Did his ego override his judgement? It certainly looks that way. Both Starmer’s offer and Mandelson’s acceptance exhibited dreadful judgment.

Politics is always the Art of the Possible. Starmer is on very shaky ground at the moment. Many in his own party are uncomfortable with what they see as the Prime Minister reacting to the apparent rise of Reform by aping them. If the Labour Party is a “Moral crusade or it is nothing” I’m afraid that Starmer’s lurch to the Right means it is nothing.

The appalling record of failure of Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss and (to a lesser extent) Sunak should have shown Starmer what to do and, more importantly, what not to do. We cried out for honesty and competence to replace 14 years of mendacity and screwing things up. Starmer is more honest than this bunch of shifty folk but in truth he doesn’t seem to get things right any better.

What next ? I don’t know. Even competent European leaders like Emanuel Macron are struggling, America is in thrall to someone who I can only call an idiot. As in the 1920s and 1930s Italy and Germany the Hard Right is seeking and winning public appeal. Batten down the hatches, there’s a rough ride ahead.

One thought on “Batten down the hatches, there’s a rough ride ahead.

  1. Good piece Paddy. Starmer needs a good war. The Falklands did the trick for Thatcher; it will work again for Starmer and Labour. There doesn’t have to be any fighting. Just somehow fix the Ukraine conflict and he will be forever considered a hero. Starmer has done well so far with his foreign policy and it is arguably his best achievement, collating the ‘Coalition of the Willing’.

    The other thing that might rescue his premiership is calling a second EU referendum on rejoining. There is now a sizable majority to rejoin. Winning that would put Farage in a bad light and weaken his influence.

    There you are, Sir Keir. I’ve fixed it for you.

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