
What I’m seeing is the West fighting a proxy war with everything except boots on the ground or planes in the air. The latter are provided by Ukraine, but everything else seems to be being provided by the West. Echoes here of Korea and Vietnam where America armed and funded the anti Communists before, inevitably, sending troops herself because it wasn’t enough.
History teaches us that in the end its boots on the ground that wins, or at least achieves a score draw. Korea seems to me the parallel. The United States and its allies were winning that war easily until the Chinese arrived. Then years of battle leading to deadlock. Russia increasing its on the ground forces against Ukraine is the equivalent of the Chinese supporting North Korea.
Notwithstanding our addiction to flying the blue and yellow flag and spending , unasked, taxpayers money on arming Ukraine we would not accept NATO troops actually grappling directly with Russians. Which means, it seems, that ultimately Russia will win. It may be a somewhat Pyrrhic victory – a “score draw” on the Korean model. A new border will be negotiated giving Russia some Ukrainian territory. Which, it has to be said, is an outcome a fair number of Russian speaking and Russian leaning Ukrainians will be happy with. As will Vladimir Putin.
Russia has in reality already won the war against Ukraine. They occupy the Donbas and Crimea and it’s impossible without NATO boots on the ground to be defeated and chased out of the territory Putin has seized.
The invasion of Russia is an indication Ukraine also accepts that assumption. Putin will see that for himself. The majority of the Donbas are Russian-speaking. They welcome Putin’s army on their land. The tragedy is that both sides could have avoided this conflict had they had the vision and statesmanship to make an argreement.
It’s clear had Zelensky asked in a referendum, his people in the Donbas would have chosen partition and union with Russia. That has now happened through military means and the West needs to stop assisting Zelensky in continuing with this futile conflict and the destruction of lives and property.
Morally of course Putin is a monster. However, all Ukraine has achieved is embolden him among the Russian people. Supported his narrative that Russia is good West bad.
Thatcher did something similar with the Falklands conflict. Political leaders never learn.
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